Forecast

Macroeconomic development

Overview: moderate gross domestic product growth of less than 3 percent

We expect global economic growth to remain moderate in 2013. Based on figures published by Feri EuroRating Services, we expect gross domestic product to increase by less than 3 percent.

We expect the mature markets to grow by just over 1 percent. The North American economy is likely to grow by around 2 percent, with Japan’s expanding by less than 1 percent. In Western Europe, we expect a slight recovery, with growth of less than 1 percent following slightly declining growth in 2012.

The emerging markets will once again achieve comparatively strong economic growth of approximately 5 percent in 2013. In the case of Asia (excluding Japan), we expect economic output to increase by around 6 percent, with Latin America likely posting a plus of approximately 4 percent. Eastern Europe should grow by around 3 percent. For the Africa/Middle East region, we expect economic growth of approximately 4 percent.

Raw material prices: moderate rise in price level

We anticipate moderate price rises in all business sectors in 2013. In light of the geopolitical and global economic situation, we expect the procurement markets to remain highly volatile. Limited capacities in some supply areas may lead to shortages.

Currencies: no major changes

We do not expect any material change in the euro exchange rate versus the US dollar, and anticipate an annual average for 2013 of around 1.25 US dollars per euro. This forecast assumes no intensification of the debt crisis in Europe. Moreover, we expect that currencies of importance for Henkel from the emerging markets, such as the Russian ruble, Chinese yuan, Mexican peso and Turkish lira, will not change to any major extent in this environment. We have used the following exchange rates in our forecast:

Average exchange rates versus the euro
 

2012

20131

Chinese yuan

8.10

8.00

Mexican peso

16.90

16.90

Russian ruble

39.93

40.30

Turkish lira 2.31 2.30

US dollar

1.28

1.25

1
Forecast.

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Inflation: moderate rise in global price levels

According to data provided by Feri EuroRating Services, global inflation is predicted to be around 4 percent. While we can continue to expect a high degree of price stability for the mature markets, with a rise of around 2 percent, the inflation rate in the emerging regions is likely to average around 6 percent.